Don't forget about mechanical/internal issue. If it is an actual mechanical/internal part failing like a lifter, spring, valve, etc... It would cause a slight miss and run rough. It may not ever set a code.
I did consider this but im going off what i can visually see is amiss and to me I dont think the tensioner pulley should be so easily moved just by slightly pulling up on the belt. Thanks for the info, I will definitely keep this in mind.